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DAILY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES |
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Physicality |
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Charles Carroll
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UNDERSTANDINGRUNNING PROFILES or RPCurrent RP:xx races xx WTW—xx S/P—xxM—xxC Current RP: means Current Running Profiles and the xx races is total number of races run at this specific distance and over this specific surface. All numbers are up to the minute including yesterday’s races. If you look down this page a bit further, WTW,S/P, M and C are all explained. It is essential to know how each and every racetrack on the Southern California plays year-in and year-out. Santa Anita is not Hollywood Park, which in turn is not Del Mar. Running profiles depict the exact “type” of running style that wins any specific race, at any specific distance, over any specific surface at any one of our 3 specific racetracks. All 3 tracks are uniquely different. The DAILY SCHTW uses 4 very distinct types of running profiles: 1—WTW (wire-to-wire)—includes the pacesetter and dueling horses within ½ length of each other at the 2nd running call. 2—S/P (stalker/presser)—any winner that was from ¾ to 2½ lengths behind the leader at the 2nd running call. 3—M (middie)—Any winner that was 2¾ to 6 lengths behind the leader at the 2nd running call. 4—C (closer)—Any winner that was over 6 lengths behind the leader at the 2nd running call. We’ll use the completed running profiles from the 1999 Del Mar meet for instructional purposes. 1999 DEL MAR RUNNING PROFILES 7/22/99 THRU 9/8/99 (Completed meet) DIRT
Furlongs 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 8 8.5 9 10 WTW 4 29 42 27 9 26 8 2 1 S/P - 16 20 11 3 9 11 1 - M - 2 6 5 5 10 4 1 - C 1 3 8 4 6 - - - - Total 5 50 76 47 23 45 23 4 1 TURF
Furlongs 8 8.5 9 10 11 12 14 WTW 15 10 3 5 S/P 10 4 7 1 M 9 9 2 3 C 3 3 1 3 Total 37 26 14 12 (89 TOTAL TURF WINNERS ----- 7/22/99 THRU 9/8/99) COMPLETED 1999 Del Mar MEET 274 DIRT + 89 TURF = 363 TOTAL WINNERS (42 RACE DAYS) Closers are at a distinct disadvantage at most tracks, but look at the dirt routes at the 1999 Del Mar meet! Not a single dirt route winner was further back than 6 lengths at the 2nd running call at all route distances!!! That’s a very powerful running bias any way that you look at it, especially considering that horses won at every sprint distance with a (C) closer’s profile. If you take time to study all running profiles for any specific meet including the one you’re playing, you’ll discover which horses to favor on any given afternoon at any given distance over either surface. This is the appeal of keeping accurate running profiles that are updated weekly. If you were betting Del Mar during the 1999 meet and had knowledge of the painfully obvious anti-closer’s route bias in all of 73 races run around 2 turns, you had an enormous edge over your betting competition. Take a gander at the 5½ furlong distance. Only 3 (C) closers out of 50 or 6% were able to be further back than 6 lengths at the 2nd running call and still win. Quite obviously the entire 1999 Del Mar meet was very kind to speed. As you begin your handicapping, take a hard look at the most recently updated running profiles enclosed with each and every issue. This should give you a good feel for how the track has been playing since the meet began, and barring any changes, how it should continue to play in the near future. This is not to say that only any given day a track’s standard running profiles can’t or won’t change. I’ve seen speed (WTW + S/P) tracks go to closer’s tracks overnight due to any number of factors to include weather, or merely normal day-to-day track maintenance. Aberrations are usually just that----aberrations and not the norm. Most often, a track will exhibit very specific preferences for certain running profiles at certain distances. Look at the 6 furlong distance at Del Mar 1999. 42 of 76 total winners were WTW “types.” Said another way, 55.3% of all 6 furlong winners were pacesetters. Couple that with the stalker/presser profile (S/P) and 20 wins from 76 starts or 26% and clearly you had speed paradise in every sense of the word with 62 of 76 winners (or 81.6%) either setting the pace or within 2½ lengths of the leader RETURN . |
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