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THE IMMUTABLE LAWS OF HANDICAPPING---PART 22
(So far in this series, we’ve touched on weight, layoff horses, first-time starters, repeaters, trouble horses, asking a horse to
do something new, overlays and underlays, stretching out, shortening up, “getting out”, never betting maiden winners to repeat, beaten favorites, last-out claims and turf racing).
We continue with “Stay away from turf racing” that began in Part 15.
8---TURF CONDITION
When handicapping any grass race, the turf condition for that event is just as
important as it is for dirt racing. Much like the dirt but even to a far much greater degree, the general public fails to differentiate between various turf conditions and what horses will favor what specific
turf surfaces!
To Joe Sixpack, turf is turf! While he might basically understand that some dirt horses only win in the slop, the 5 basic turf conditions are far beyond his reach, as well as
the movement of the rails in and out from zero to 30 feet out.
Turf surfaces are very different and go thru changes almost daily. The grass oval is a living entity, whereas the dirt course
is only a lifeless mixture. The change for any given day on a turf course could be imperceptible, just as it is most of the time in sunny Southern California, or it could be as obvious as a dry dirt track
turning sloppy after hard rain. Just as with the dirt course, moisture is the main factor that changes a turf surface. The moisture can come from the heavens or from the track’s sprinkler system.
And if moisture alone weren’t enough to change a turf course, grass grows, it gets cut and courses get rolled. Additionally, a few courses will get so beat up from overuse, that they look more like
a dirt track rather than a turf course.
Consider the following 5 major turf course conditions:
1---HARD---You won’t see this turf condition all that often, but I’ve seen it more than once
in the past. Again the culprit is moisture, but this time it is the lack of it! If you have very hot and dry weather for an extended period of time, the course might someday be listed as HARD. And
although sprinkler systems constantly add water, the sun quickly dissipates any momentary benefit. This type of course greatly favors front speed and the winners run up unbelievably fast races.
2---FIRM---This is the “normal” turf condition, just as fast is for a dirt course. The turf surface is neither abnormally hard nor soft. Many handicappers call this a fair turf surface, meaning that it
doesn’t really favor any specific running style. Early horses can win and so might closers.
3---GOOD ---This is the final drying out stage of a turf course recently rained upon. It is not
quite firm, nor is it yielding. The remaining wetness in the track has a tendency to slow down frontrunners quite a bit. While on occasion a frontrunner can “wire” their field, most can’t and need firmer
footing! When this “good” course completely dries out, it is then labeled FIRM.
4---YIELDING This condition occurs after a good steady rain for 5 to 6 hours. The top of the turf course
actually “gives” as the horses push off with every stride. You’ll usually see big chunks of grass being thrown backwards as the race is run. This type of course literally kills “speed” and very few
frontrunners can hold the lead from gate to wire.
5---SOFT---This condition occurs after a continuous soaking of rain for a day or more. Not only is the top of the course giving, but the horses’
hooves actually sink into the course itself. This is evidenced by the incredibly slow times of the races. This type of course almost guarantees that a frontrunner has no chance of winning!
As you can plainly see, all turf is not the same and the footing itself is quite different on each surface. Many consistent “firm” course winners fail miserably over a “yielding” surface, while some horses
only win when the going is “yielding”! The point here is that just like any dirt course where there are specific runners that win over different dirt tracks, the turf also caters to specific runners over
different turf surfaces. You must be able to make these subtle distinctions to become a complete turf expert. A few turf horses can handle all turf surfaces, but the overwhelming majority can’t and have
their most favored turf surface. If you’re considering a runner who has never successfully handled today’s EXACT TURF CONDITION, exert the greatest CAUTION before walking up to the mutuel windows.
9---BOGUS TURF VARIANTS
I’m going to be brief and directly to the point. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A TURF VARIANT no matter what people and various commercial services try to tell you.
Consider the following:
1---A daily track variant comes about on the dirt because you can calculate differences between par times for the dirt races vs. the actual running times of those same
races. You always have at least 6 races for comparison before you average them out and declare that the dirt track was 3 slow today for routes or 5 fast for sprints.
2---On any given day at any
turf course in America, you only have from 1 to 3 turf races carded. Once in a great while towards the end of a turf meet, management might card 4 races as they are no longer worrying about the course getting
beat up. The course will have ample time to recover when the meet ends.
3---Since most turf courses only average 2 turf races a day with usually 1 sprint and 1 route, there is absolutely no way to
compare sprints or routes to get an accurate turf variant. Sprint variants and route variants are NEVER mixed on the dirt, so it is equally important NEVER to do that with turf races!
4---Turf
rails are constantly being moved in and out on all grass courses, whereas the dirt rail is always stationary! I guarantee you that few if any number services take the turf rail position into
consideration when offering the public turf variants and final turf numbers that are bogus.
If you are still not convinced that you simply can’t make a turf variant or a legitimate turf number, I have
100 acres of swampland in Beverly Hills that I can let you have for 50 bucks an acre---call me at once before they are all gone!
NEXT ----PART 23---TURF LAYOFFS
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